Asteroid collisions compel new initiatives

 Astronauts, like other individuals who realize their ultimate dreams, from financial to political or spiritual, often ask the question, "what will I do next?" Of course,  an underlying assumption is 'that next thing' must be meaningful and valuable.  Since dreams are subjective and often evolve as people do, outdoing oneself can be a challenge.   As it happens, in part of my doctoral project, I conducted research into perception and choices of meaningful future roles of former astronauts.

During the course of my work, I became especially fascinated with the original vision of the Association of Space Explorers (ASE), a foundation comprised entirely of individuals from around the world who have orbited our planet. Among these rare 500 (or so) people, the actual ASE members divided themselves up to develop what they considered to be meaningful projects. As individuals, they desired to effectively raise awareness of the usefulness and applications of space science, to engage in efforts that positively affect Earthly environments, and to improve technical engineering expertise which would benefit future astronauts and space technology. These projects were over and above whatever space agency responsibilities any active ASE astronauts still had.

Amidst these key areas of astronaut expertise and interest, the idea of preparing to mitigate and deal with large-scale asteroid collisions would actually touch on all three. Consider the story of Armageddon that has been recounted in popular science fiction stories and movies. Many people have a real view the strongest military would eliminate the problem space object before it became a real problem. Whether or not this would actually be the case remains to be seen.

In 2005, I outlined a post-doctoral project with the aim to examine the international collaboration to deal with incoming space objects. I discovered no supra-national political coordination exists. Large-scale disasters, like tsunamis, have led to available funding for environmental studies. Yet, addressing hypothetical asteroid matters is still not a funding priority. it remains a rather humourous and unlikely possibility in the minds of public and decision-makers.

Since the United Nations has coordination and financial issues among members, an international space authority (IAS) has not evolved. The power dynamics and security of space-faring countries haven't yet permitted that.  Although space scientists collaborate in international associations to sharing information on sightings and studies, but they have no national responsibility or authority to organize how to react to asteroid disasters. A clear chain of command hasn't been identified in a multi-national setting.

Admittedly, its been hard to provide precise predictions about what is directly moving toward the Earth's orbital path. Media periodically broadcast special reports about incoming asteroids with predicted collision dates.  Yet, scientific inaccuracies and revisions or apologies really downplay the impact of the sightings. They also influence what has been known as "cry wolf syndrome."

Since ASE has become less active, Apollo-9 Russell Schweickart co-founded the B612 Foundation. This group studies how to alter the orbit of a large asteroid to prevent it from hitting Earth. Millions of these big "rocks" float in space and ~200,000- 400,000 of them get close enough to be classified as celestial objects that could venture in range of Earth. It would only take one.  Many scientists believe an asteroid impact led to the dinosaur extinction over 65 million years ago

Consider ~100,000 meteorites and micrometeorites are known to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere daily. Not every near earth object (neo) burns. Fragments land on Earth, yet so far, their damage has been minimal. Scientists and telescopes regularly observe known asteroid tracks in the northern hemisphere but no comparable southern hemisphere initiatives exist.  We lack the surveillance.

Schweickart agrees asteroid mitigation project should be led by an international organization. Like other experts, hecontends its difficult to predict when or where an asteroid will hit the Earth. No single government should be held responsible for asteroid avoidance.   More than once, he has advised the United Nations to set up an agency mandated to prevent an asteroid from colliding with the Earth. He has;set up related meetings worldwide to develop a comprehensive plan and support. Schweickart and peers estimate a project would cost several hundred million dollars, a burden for one country, but it would be realistic as a combined effort.

If you compare asteroids to tsunamis and other known large-scale environmental crises, you can see what kinds of efforts would help. Schweickart suggests a three-step asteroid mitigation program:

1) Early Warning. Similar to new empahsis on the importance of early warning systms for tsunamis, we'll only know asteroids are coming by searching. NASA currently has a budget of $4.1 million to look for asteroids. Not all space agencies or countries agree this is a priority.

2) Take Action. Develop the technical ability to deflect an asteroid. Some technology is available now, but propulsion that doesn't exist yet will be required — nuclear reactors that could power ion-propulsion systems for interplanetary spacecraft. International Space Law also restricts nuclear power in outer space activities.

3) Make a Decision. Nations, agencies or wealthy sources must decide to do this and fund it.

What can you do? No matter who you are or where you live, you can discover ways to support an environmental initiative of interest. Write an article to start. You could also consult: http://www.b612foundation.org